Criminal activity and its drivers have received much attention. One factor is that weather is believed to influence criminal activity. A small body of literature has conducted empirical studies of this relationship to a large extent Supports the conclusion that weather has a causal effect on criminal activity. It examines whether such relationships hold in New Zealand. Incorporating weather changes into the dynamics of criminal behavior may provide an important model for violent criminal behavior. In addition, weather can be used as an instrumental variable to analyze the impact of crime on some variables, such as property prices, quality of life index, economic growth, and so on. In addition, weather can be used as a direct predictor of criminal activity. It will be a valuable tool for police trying to allocate resources.
Previous literature has highlighted the psychological effects of weather and the resulting propensity to change, propensity to violent crime for example, negative impact escape (NAE) models specify that aggression increases with temperature because of irritation and discomfort, but only up to a point. At this point, the relationship becomes that when the level of discomfort increases to the point where the motivation to escape is uncomfortable, the negative Situation becomes more aggressive than motivation (Bell 1992). Thus, there is an “opposite” relationship between temperature and aggression. As aggression increases/decreases the expected utility of releasing aggression from a crime increases/decreases.
Weather can have an impact on social mobility. People are less likely to stay at home if the weather is “nice” (Schmallager 1997). People may be more likely to go out at night or on weekends. Is it in the RA theory above that how does this indirectly affect criminal activity through the likelihood of encounter suitable targets, motivated criminals, and the lack of competent guardians to fight crime. First, in “good” weather, not likely People will stay at home, thus reducing the possibility of gifts for the presence of capable guardians. This reduces the likelihood of detection, thereby lowering the expected cost and, all things being equal, increasing the number of property crimes (Caulfield and Chapman, 2005).
Temperature and Temperament
Another factor often mentioned in the effect of warm weather on crime is the change in temperament that occurs with temperature. In the Finnish study, heat was linked to changes in brain chemistry that made impulsive and aggressive behavior more likely – and it’s far from the only study to establish this link.
Craig Anderson, director of the Iowa Center for the Study of Violence and an expert on human aggression, explains that heat doesn’t cause violence, but it encourages it. For example, high temperatures make it more likely that a pitcher will hit a player at bat, but only if a batter on the pitcher’s team is hit. Heat can escalate situations by making people feel more aggressive than expected in certain behaviors. In other words, having a warm day that makes you more likely to honk your horn has the same psychological effect as leading to greater violence during the hot summer months.(Virginia, 2019)
Reference:
Horrocks, J. and Menclova, A.K. (2011). The effects of weather on crime. New Zealand Economic Papers, 45(3), pp.231–254. doi:10.1080/00779954.2011.572544 [Accessed 27 September 2022].
Virginia (2019). Weather and crime: is there a connection? [online] ZME Science. Available at: https://www.zmescience.com/science/weather-crime-connection-04234/ [Accessed 30 September 2022].
