Problems hampering the Japanese economy
Forecasting the future for 2040 (2040年の未来予測) -Makoto Naruke
Makoto Naruke’s ‘Forecasting the future for 2040’ has given the Japanese a shock. This book depicted the Japanese’s difficulties and allowed them to envisage their lives in the future. It is a book illustrating how technology and people’s lifestyle in Japan will likely change in the next 20 years. This article introduces three future issues that Japan will face based on the book and resources from other news and articles (Naruke, 2021).
Problems hampering the Japanese economy
Facing a serious labor shortage
One of the biggest problems Japan has been facing is labour shortage. Although the birth rate has significantly dropped since 1995, the aging population has been increasing at an alarming rate. With a conservative estimate, 35% of men and 60% of women born in 1950 are expected to live until 90 years old. Researchers estimate that the old generation above 65 years old would account for a quarter of Tokyo’s population in 2040. However, the young age in Tokyo accounted for 11% in 2019 and will be under 10% in 2040. Even if the birth rate increases within ten years, the labour force is insufficient (Naruke, 2021).
As the aging population has increased, the nursing homes have been facing a critical shortage of staff, meaning only limited people could get support. In addition, entering a nursing house could be expensive, and not all people could afford it.
Increasing numbers of vacant houses
1970 was when many apartments started to be built in Japan because the population had increased dramatically, causing a critical housing shortage. The price of land increased as more people asked to live on the outskirts of the city; therefore, many apartments were built in rural areas at that time. However, the situation is different now.
As Japan entered long-term economic stagnation and is dealing with a low birth rate, the vacant houses have increased gradually. According to Iwate Governor and Internal Affairs and Communications Affairs, Japan’s unclaimed land has expanded to 4.1 million hectares, equivalent to the size of the island of Kyushu. The same study predicted that unclaimed land could reach the size of Hokkaido by 2040 (Nikkei Aisa, 2021).
Natural disasters (Tokyo inland earthquake, Nankai megathrust earthquakes, and Mt. Fuji eruption)
The author Makoto Naruke and the government stated that there is a 70 to 80% chance that magnitude-7 inland Tokyo earthquakes and magnitude-9 Nankai megathrust earthquakes will occur within 30 years. These two earthquakes are believed to happen at this same time. The estimating loss caused by these earthquakes cannot be compared with the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. The economic loss in 20 years after the earthquakes is estimated to be 919 trillion yen, whereas the national budget is 100 trillion yen. If these two earthquakes happened, Japan’s people and its economy would be significantly affected. In addition to the earthquakes, the Japanese also need to consider the Mt. Fuji eruption. It is also said that Mt. Fuji is likely to erupt within 30 years.
Unfortunately, there is still no measurement taken by the government. It is significant for citizens to keep track of the news of these disasters, search for where they could evacuate, and stock mineral waters and emergency rations (Naruke, 2021, p.252).
Reference
Naruke, M. 2021. 2040年の未来予測,日経BP.
Nikkei Aisa. 2021. As Japan’s empty homes multiply, its laws are slowly catching up. [online] Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/As-Japan-s-empty-homes-multiply-its-laws-are-slowly-catching-up
